Friday, the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announced it had approved the sale of $108 million in spare and repair parts and US government and contractor technical assistance to the Republic of China (ROC), sometimes called Taiwan, to modernize and maintain the weapons, vehicles, and armored vehicles of that country. The next step will be for Congress to approve the sale.
Unless Hunter Biden reminds the “Big Guy” that he might lose his 10 percent or the members of Congress known to be humping Chinese spies object, Congress will approve the sale.
The ChiComs, however, have a bad case of gritty panties. This is from a Chinese military press release to give you the full flavor of the Chinese response.
The US arms sales to China’s Taiwan region seriously violate the one-China principle and the three China-US joint communiques, particularly the Aug. 17 Communique, grossly interfere in China’s internal affairs, gravely jeopardize China’s sovereignty and security interests, and severely harm relations between the two countries and their militaries. The Chinese side is firmly opposed to it.
The Taiwan question concerns China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity and involves China’s core interests. Recently, the US has repeatedly promised China the “five assurances” ie, “the US does not seek a new Cold War with China; it does not aim to change China’s system; the revitalization of its alliances is not targeted at China; the United States does not support ‘Taiwan independence’; and it has no intention to seek a conflict with China”, clearly stated that it does not support “Taiwan independence”. However, on the issue of arms sales to Taiwan, the US side has no integrity in the least and its words and deeds are inconsistent.
China urges the US side to immediately revoke the arms sales plan to Taiwan, and stop arms sales to and military ties with Taiwan. Otherwise, the responsibility for undermining China-US bilateral and mil-to-mil relations and the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait will be borne entirely by the US side.
What needs to be emphasized is that Taiwan’s future, as well as the safety, security, and well-being of Taiwan compatriots cannot be bought. The Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities and the ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces were vainly trying to rely on the US to strengthen themselves, and attempted to “seek independence by force”, which is just like quenching a thirst with poison. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will take all necessary measures to firmly safeguard China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity and will resolutely thwart any form of interference by external forces and separatist plots of “Taiwan independence.”
Communist China routinely objects to US military aid to the Republic of China. This objection doesn’t appear to be unusually strong. The aid provided is not controversial, certainly not on the level of President George W. Bush’s promise to sell eight diesel-electric boats (a deal that the ChiComs successfully bullied into non-existence). But today is different.
A year ago, I think the ChiComs looked at conquering, sorry, I mean reunification with a rebellious province as inevitable. It was obvious that Joe Biden was an idiot on a good day and, on most days, was clinically demented. The US economy had been mauled by a virus leaked from a Chinese laboratory funded partly by grants from our own NIH. The US military had unleashed the dogs of wokeism, effectively demolishing the warrior spirit needed to function. In particular, the US Navy, which will bear the brunt of any fight with China, is on its way to becoming a joke. The ships look like Soviet trawlers from the Cold War era. We’ve lost two destroyers to collisions that could have been avoided with competent ship-handling skills. The USS Bonhomme Richard was lost to a fire that the Navy could’ve extinguished. (Please read the link by my friend @cdrsalamanderyou will be stunned by the incompetence.)
The Navy’s response to the Bonhomme Richard fire as shown through interpretive dance. https://t.co/nRnoOzVz3c
— cdrsalamander (@cdrsalamander) May 12, 2022
READ: The Navy Has Abandoned Readiness of the Nation to Racist Indoctrination; Someone Must Be Held Responsible and The Chinese Claim They Chased a US Navy Destroyer out of the South China Sea and We Can No Longer Assume They Are Lying to Us.
Not only is American power in a trough under Biden, but China is also looking at Ukraine and realizing that the war they thought they would be fighting is probably not the war they will have to fight.
While Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has given China some hope, they’ve seen how easily Russia has been able to coerce Western Europe into continuing to fund the Russian military despite EU sanctions. They must be keenly aware of the number of pundits left and right who have been purchased or rented to push out Putin’s talking points daily.
I think China has long imagined that the Republic of China is weak, corrupt, and ready to fall in the same way that Putin and his inner circle fantasized that Ukraine would be absorbed by Russia voluntarily. In the wake of China’s rape of Hong Kong’s self-government, everyone knows that any promise to the Republic of China, like the “one country, two systems” promise made to Hong Kong, is a blatant lie. About two-thirds of ROC’s citizens thought the ChiCom government was “bad” in a poll taken shortly before Vladimir Putin began his 72-hour “special military operation.” I imagine that number is higher now, effectively taking a voluntary reunification off the table.
I would also imagine the Chinese have watched Putin’s War with growing alarm. The combination of UAVs and smart munitions has changed the calculus of combat. The manned aircraft that China routinely flies into ROC airspace are much more targets than threats in a battlespace dominated by Patriots. (ROC has at least 36 launchers). Cruise missiles are no more useful than aircraft. China doesn’t have a sufficient number of amphibious ships to force a beachhead on Taiwan and sustain the combat operations of that beachhead. The proliferation of man-portable air defense systems like the British Starstreak and American Stinger (should Raytheon ever get around to resuming production) and anti-armor systems like Javelin and NLAW make lightly armed militias a match for regular armies. The loss of a capital ship like the Moskva (BREAKING. Russian Flagship Sinks While Being Towed to Port) to a not-very-good Ukrainian knockoff of a crappy Russian anti-ship missile doesn’t bode well for the service life of any surface craft.
Not being idiots, China also knows that much of its combat equipment has roots in Soviet designs and has witnessed what that means.
In the last six months, the “reunification” of the ROC with China has gone from being assured to highly problematic. In another couple of years, reunification without nuking Taiwan will be impossible.
To cut to the chase, China has a political/military window of about 24 months to force reunification or retire the goal and keep it as a slogan. Its shipbuilding program and suborning of island nations in the Pacific (China Seeks to Buy Eight Pacific Island Nations While Joe Biden and His State Department Are Comatose) demonstrate a sense of urgency. The change of government in the Philippines, which seems to be off the Biden White House’s radar, has installed a potentially China-friendly government. The militarization of the artificial islands constructed by China in the South China Sea continues apace.
We can’t discount China potentially seizing the hour to try and take the island of Taiwan by force. We can’t assume that just because they shouldn’t, they won’t.